Iran Writedown Masks MTN Group’s Underlying Earnings Growth

AFRICAN STOCKS AND FINANCEAugust 12, 2026 at 10:29 AM UTC

TLDR

MTN Group forecasts up to 23% rise in underlying earnings for the first half of 2026, with adjustments reflecting growth in mobile and fintech services.
Reported profit affected by writedown on Iranian business and currency losses, impacting earnings per share, with implications on MTN's stake in Irancell.
Progress noted in telecom operations in Nigeria, Ghana, and Uganda, amidst challenges in airtime lending and prepaid voice revenue, with ongoing acquisition of IHS Towers.

MTN Group expects underlying earnings to rise as much as 23% in the first half of 2026, even as a writedown on its Iranian business and currency losses cut reported profit. Africa’s largest mobile operator forecast adjusted headline earnings per share of 775 cents to 808 cents, up 18% to 23% from 657 cents a year earlier.

Reported earnings moved the other way. Earnings per share are expected at 377 cents to 431 cents, down 20% to 30% from 539 cents in the first half of 2025. Headline earnings per share are expected between 580 cents and 645 cents, compared with 645 cents a year earlier.

The gap reflects MTN’s 49% stake in Irancell. The group recorded impairment losses equal to 213 cents per share because of the war in Iran and economic conditions in the country, compared with 104 cents a year earlier. MTN also recorded 178 cents per share of non-operational charges, including 126 cents from foreign exchange losses and 52 cents from hyperinflation.

The telecom business continued to grow. MTN said service revenue increased within its medium-term target, while EBITDA margins and free cash flow improved. Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda reported growth during the period. Fintech revenue in Nigeria faced pressure after regulators suspended airtime lending, while MTN South Africa continued to see weakness in prepaid voice revenue.

MTN is also moving toward its takeover of IHS Towers. IHS shareholders approved the transaction on Aug. 4, clearing one of the main conditions for MTN to acquire the 75.3% it does not own. Regulatory approvals remain outstanding. MTN expects to publish its full interim results around Aug. 24.

Points clés à retenir

The main story in MTN’s results is the gap between the performance of its telecom operations and accounting losses tied to Iran. Adjusted headline earnings per share strip out items such as foreign exchange losses, hyperinflation and impairments, and that measure is expected to rise as much as 23%. Earnings per share, by contrast, could fall 30%. That makes Irancell the main reason reported profit does not match the direction of the core business. MTN owns 49% of the Iranian operator, but sanctions, currency controls and geopolitical risk have limited its ability to move cash out of the country for years. The latest impairment raises the question of how much value MTN can continue to assign to the stake. Elsewhere, Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda are supporting growth, while South Africa remains a weaker part of the portfolio. The planned IHS Towers acquisition adds another issue for investors. Taking full control of the tower company could give MTN more control over infrastructure costs across its markets, but it will also add a capital-intensive business and debt. Full first-half results will show whether cash generation from MTN’s operating businesses is strong enough to offset these pressures.

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