Ivory Coast Cocoa Output Could Fall 25% as El Niño Threatens Harvest

Ivory Coast's cocoa production could decline by 21% to 25% during the 2026-27 season as an El Niño weather event threatens rainfall and crop development, according to the country's national meteorological agency. The warning, reported on November 11, 2026, comes as the world's largest cocoa producer faces reduced harvests and lower deliveries to exporters. The country produced more than 2 million metric tons of cocoa last season, meaning a decline of this scale could remove hundreds of thousands of tons from global supply.

The National Meteorology Directorate of SODEXAM warned that rainfall could fall by 10% to 27%, with a shorter rainy season, longer dry periods and higher temperatures affecting cocoa-growing regions. The agency described the 2026-27 El Niño as a weather event that could rank among the strongest recorded if Pacific Ocean warming continues. Reduced rainfall and heat could damage cocoa trees, cause flowers and young pods to fall, and lower crop yields. The effects could also disrupt planting schedules and reduce water available for agriculture and electricity generation.

Ivory Coast suspended sales of export contracts for its 2026-27 main cocoa crop in June after selling approximately 1.15 million tons, pending a clearer assessment of production. Exporters say the harvest is performing below expectations, with deliveries to ports falling short of forecasts. Industry participants now estimate total production at 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons, compared with approximately 2.15 million tons delivered to ports last season. The April-to-September mid-crop could decline to between 300,000 and 350,000 tons from about 600,000 tons a year earlier.

Farmers have reported reduced harvests across producing regions. Simplice Koua, who cultivates 6 hectares in Duekoue, said he had sold only 3 bags of cocoa weighing 80 kilograms each by November, compared with 14 bags during the same period last year. An exporter based in Abidjan said cocoa arrivals were below initial forecasts and questioned whether a 25% production decline might underestimate the damage. Poor rainfall has affected flowering and pod development, while concerns remain over the impact of dry Harmattan winds on the crop.

The weather threat extends beyond cocoa production. The African Development Bank warned in July that El Niño could reduce economic output in African countries affected by the event by 1% to 2%, representing losses of $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent. For Ivory Coast, lower cocoa output could reduce export revenue, farmer income and government receipts. The size of the decline will depend on rainfall, temperatures and crop development through the remainder of the 2026-27 season.