Lower Food Prices Help Malawi Inflation Fall to 27.7% in May

Malawi’s headline inflation eased to 27.7% in May 2025, down from 29.2% in April, according to the National Statistical Office’s latest Consumer Price Index report. The decline was driven by falling food inflation, which dropped to 32.7% from 35.8%. Non-food inflation, however, edged up to 20% from 19.4%. Month-to-month, national inflation stood at 0.6%, with food inflation at 0.2% and non-food at 1.2%.

Urban inflation remained stable at 0.6%, while rural inflation came in slightly lower at 0.5%. The data show slower food price growth across both settings, with rural areas seeing a month-to-month food inflation rate of just 0.1%.

The Consumer Association of Malawi welcomed the development. Executive Director John Kapito linked the decline to falling maize prices, noting the easing of pressure on household budgets. Retail maize prices fell to K928/kg in May, down from earlier highs, though still 57% higher year-on-year.

Economist Velli Nyirongo said improved food supply is helping control inflation, but warned that non-food prices remain high due to forex shortages and operating costs. While current trends are encouraging, especially for food affordability, broader macroeconomic stability depends on improving forex liquidity, reducing import dependency, and supporting domestic production beyond agriculture.

If inflation moderation continues in the second half of the year, the Reserve Bank of Malawi may find room to adjust policy rates, but fiscal and currency risks remain central to long-term inflation control.

Daba is Africa's leading investment platform for private and public markets. Download here