Nigeria's Economy Becomes 30% Bigger After Statistical Rebase

BREAKING NEWSJuly 22, 2025 at 9:01 AM UTC

TLDR

Nigeria’s economy is now estimated at ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024 after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) updated its GDP base year to 2019
The revision expands GDP by over 30% from prior IMF projections of $187.6 billion and includes previously uncounted sectors in the informal economy
Despite the increase, Nigeria remains the fourth largest economy in Africa, behind South Africa ($410.3 billion), Egypt ($347 billion), and Algeria ($268.9 billion)

Nigeria’s economy is now estimated at ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion) in 2024 after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) updated its GDP base year to 2019, replacing the previous 2010 benchmark. The revision expands GDP by over 30% from prior IMF projections of $187.6 billion and includes previously uncounted sectors in the informal economy.

Despite the increase, Nigeria remains the fourth largest economy in Africa, behind South Africa ($410.3 billion), Egypt ($347 billion), and Algeria ($268.9 billion), according to IMF estimates.

The rebased GDP for 2023 was ₦314 trillion. The NBS said the revision covers 2019–2023 and aligns GDP calculations with current economic realities, including updated sector weights and data sources.

In Q1 2025, Nigeria recorded 3.13% real GDP growth year-on-year, driven by the services sector, which contributed 57.5% to total output. Industry and agriculture grew 3.42% and 0.07%, respectively. Nominal GDP for the quarter was ₦94 trillion, up 18.3% from Q1 2024.

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Points clés à retenir

Nigeria’s GDP rebasing provides a more accurate picture of the economy’s size and sectoral composition. The inclusion of informal activity and emerging industries pushes the economy’s nominal value up, yet this statistical boost does not equate to stronger fundamentals. The country’s population continues to grow faster than GDP per capita, and inflation, currency pressures, and fiscal constraints persist. Despite leading in population and resource potential, Nigeria still lags South Africa and Egypt in overall economic output. The rebasing offers opportunities for better policymaking, improved credit metrics, and more accurate investor assessments. But unlocking growth will depend on structural reforms, revenue mobilization, and attracting productive investment beyond the services sector.

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