World Bank Warns AI Benefits Risk Bypassing Africa's Poor

The World Bank's October 2026 Africa Economic Update indicates that Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds significant potential to expand Nigeria's digital economy and reduce poverty across Africa. The report, however, warns that poor households risk being excluded from these benefits. This exclusion is primarily due to fundamental constraints in accessing essential digital infrastructure and skills.

The financial institution identifies AI as a potential poverty-reducing platform for the continent, but its widespread adoption is hampered by several factors. These include limited access to affordable internet, necessary devices, reliable electricity, and adequate digital skills. The report emphasizes that mobile internet in Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least affordable globally when measured against income levels.

Encouragingly, some African countries show early signs of AI engagement, with Nigeria's GitHub developer base expanding tenfold since 2020. Ghana also recorded nearly an eightfold increase in its developer community, especially after free AI coding assistants became available. Despite this growth, a basic data package costs about twice the United Nations' affordability target of 2% of average monthly income. Furthermore, across 19 African countries, only 12% of the poorest households have both a phone and an electricity-grid connection, compared to 54% in the richest quintile.

This disparity means AI's productivity gains risk being concentrated among highly educated workers, formal firms, and wealthier urban households. The World Bank warns that farmers, informal businesses, schools, and clinics in underserved areas could remain excluded from AI's advantages. For investors, this suggests that while AI offers growth opportunities in the digital services sector, its broader economic impact and potential for widespread market expansion will depend on addressing these foundational access gaps.

To unlock AI's full potential, African countries must transition from merely connecting markets to ensuring poor people and places are connected. This requires strategic investments in connectivity infrastructure, reliable electricity, digital skills development, and enhanced computing capacity. Achieving this transition could position AI as a platform for broad-based productivity growth and poverty reduction, rather than a technology that amplifies existing inequalities.