Egyptian Inflation Inches Higher as Fuel Price Hike Pressures Economy

AFRICAN BUSINESS AND ECONOMYNovember 11, 2024 at 11:39 AM UTC

TLDR

Egypt's annual inflation rate increased to 26.5% in October, driven by a 9.2% fuel price hike.
Food and beverage prices, the largest inflation component, rose by 27.3% year-on-year.
Inflationary trend expected to persist in November, with recent fuel and cigarette price hikes adding pressure.

Egypt's annual inflation rate rose slightly to 26.5% in October, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, largely driven by a recent 9.2% fuel price hike.

Data from Egypt’s state statistics agency CAPMAS revealed that food and beverage prices, the largest inflation component, rose 27.3% year-on-year. This increase reflects Egypt's ongoing subsidy cuts aimed at improving government finances and meeting targets under its $8 billion IMF agreement.

The inflationary trend is expected to continue in November, with the October fuel increase not yet fully factored in and recent hikes in cigarette prices likely to add further pressure. The central bank, which has held interest rates at 27.25% for the past four meetings, may maintain its stance in November, with most economists predicting no rate cuts until 2025.

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Key Takeaways

Egypt’s rising inflation underscores the economic challenges of subsidy cuts and fuel price adjustments needed to reduce the budget deficit and adhere to IMF conditions. While aiming to phase out fuel subsidies by 2025, the government has also boosted social spending to cushion low-income households. Recent regional tensions, a slump in Suez Canal revenue, and inflation pressures have led Egyptian officials to seek adjustments to the IMF timetable. As economic pressures mount, the government’s ability to balance fiscal reform with social stability remains critical.

Egypt

Inflation

Interest Rates

Central Bank

Economy