Fitch Warns Mpox Surge in Africa May Strain Economies
TLDR
- MPOX outbreak in sub-Saharan Africa may impact economy and fiscal metrics, Fitch Ratings warns.
- WHO declares global health emergency as outbreak spreads to multiple African nations.
- Expectation of vaccines arriving in DRC by September 1 as Africa CDC plans response.
The escalating mpox outbreak in sub-Saharan Africa could negatively impact economic activity and strain fiscal metrics in affected countries, according to Fitch Ratings. The virus has caused over 575 deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo this year, the epicenter of the outbreak, and has spread to at least eight other African nations, as well as Sweden and Thailand.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a global health emergency, with public health officials noting that it could have been prevented. Fitch Ratings warned that a significant increase in mpox cases could disrupt consumption and production, potentially leading to challenges in managing inflation, particularly if food production or logistics are affected.
The ratings agency also noted that increased government spending on healthcare and epidemic prevention, coupled with weaker economic activity, could widen budget deficits and depress tax revenues. Vaccines are expected to arrive in the DRC from September 1, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Director General Jean Kaseya said on Tuesday.
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Key Takeaways
The spread of a new strain of mpox from Congo has increased the total number of cases in Africa this year to nearly 23,000, up from about 19,000 last week. This strain appears to be sexually transmitted, as well as through other forms of close contact, and can cause severe health outcomes, including blindness, disfigurement, and death. Fitch also noted that the mpox outbreak could hurt Africa's tourism sector, which is vital to the economies of Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda. Tourism accounts for 11% to 20% of these countries' total goods and services export earnings, according to United Nations data. The outbreak's impact on tourism could further strain public finances in these nations, Fitch warned.
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