Francophone West African Economy Set for Another Year of Growth
TLDR
- The UEMOA enters 2025 with strong GDP growth, improved fiscal discipline, and a rising stock market
- Inflation moderated to 3.6% in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 3.0% in 2025
- Growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.3% in 2025, driven by increased hydrocarbon production and gold mining
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, or UEMOA in French) enters 2025 with strong GDP growth, improved fiscal discipline, and a rising stock market. GDP expanded 6.0% in 2024, up from 5.3% in 2023, with Niger leading at 8.8% due to higher food crop production and crude oil exports.
Inflation moderated to 3.6% in 2024 and is expected to decline further to 3.0% in 2025. The BRVM Composite Index gained 28.89%, led by Orange Côte d'Ivoire (+60.55%) and SAPH CI (+76.17%). Brent crude oil ended the year at $74.6 per barrel, while gold rose 27.47% to $2,641 per ounce.
Growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.3% in 2025, driven by increased hydrocarbon production and gold mining, per a BOA Securities report. Political risk remains a concern, particularly Côte d'Ivoire’s October presidential election, which could introduce market volatility.
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Key Takeaways
UEMOA’s economic trajectory remains positive, supported by strong growth in energy, agriculture, and financial services. The region’s fiscal health is improving, with a projected budget deficit reduction to 3.0% of GDP in 2025, driven by tax reforms and rising oil and gas revenues. However, external risks, including global monetary policy shifts, could impact capital flows. The BRVM stock market continues its upward trend, but election uncertainty in Côte d'Ivoire could lead to short-term volatility. The CFA franc’s depreciation against the US dollar (-6.36%) remains a challenge, affecting import costs and external debt servicing. For investors, UEMOA presents strong opportunities in fixed income, equities, and commodities, but navigating political developments and global financial shifts will be key to sustaining gains in 2025.
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