Gabon’s Dollar Bonds Gain as Junta Sets Election for April

BREAKING NEWSJanuary 23, 2025 at 10:20 AM UTC

TLDR

Gabon’s dollar bonds rallied after the nation’s junta announced presidential elections will take place on April 12, 2025
The election will follow the timeline promised by military leaders after Brice Oligui Nguema overthrew former President Ali Bongo
The 2023 coup came after disputed elections, with the military citing irregularities

Gabon’s dollar bonds rallied after the nation’s junta announced presidential elections will take place on April 12, 2025, signaling a potential return to civilian rule. The election will follow the timeline promised by military leaders after Brice Oligui Nguema overthrew former President Ali Bongo in August 2023.

Energy Minister Séraphin Akure-Davin confirmed the date, stating voting will follow existing regulations. No candidates have yet declared their intention to run. Under the constitution adopted in November 2024, Gabon will shift to a presidential system, abolishing the prime minister role, with a seven-year presidential term and a one-time re-election limit.

The 2023 coup came after disputed elections, with the military citing irregularities. Nguema, then commander of the Republican Guard, became transitional president.

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Key Takeaways

Adherence to the junta's electoral timeline and structural changes to governance, including the new constitution, signal efforts to stabilize Gabon’s political environment. Markets responded positively, with bondholders optimistic about reduced uncertainty. While the election date offers a path forward, Gabon’s reliance on oil revenues and political stability remains central to its economic prospects. Military-led African transitions often face international scrutiny, but Gabon’s planned return to civilian rule could improve investor sentiment and strengthen its global standing.

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