Ghana Cuts 2024-25 Cocoa Harvest Forecast on Weather Concerns
TLDR
- Ghana has reduced its cocoa harvest forecast for the 2024-2025 season by 5% after an earlier reduction in August
- The revision is attributed to hotter-than-expected weather and a lack of rain in the world's second-largest cocoa producer
- In response to these supply concerns, cocoa futures in New York have reached record highs, exceeding $12,000 per ton
Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, has reduced its cocoa harvest forecast for the 2024-2025 season by 5%, now anticipating approximately 617,500 tons. This adjustment follows an earlier reduction in August, which had already lowered expectations by 20% to 650,000 tons.
The revision is attributed to hotter-than-expected weather and a lack of rain, with the seasonal hot and dry Harmattan winds further impacting cocoa prospects. These conditions have raised concerns about cocoa trees' health and the current season's potential yield.
In response to these supply concerns, cocoa futures in New York have reached record highs, exceeding $12,000 per ton. The surge in prices is driven by fears of reduced output in top growers like Ivory Coast and Ghana, with dry weather posing significant threats to production.
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Key Takeaways
The global cocoa market is experiencing a substantial supply deficit, with the International Cocoa Organization projecting a production shortfall of 478,000 tons for the 2023-2024 season. This deficit has led to end-of-season stock levels reaching a 46-year low, further exacerbating price volatility. These developments have significant implications for both producers and consumers. Farmers in Ghana are facing challenges due to adverse weather conditions, while consumers worldwide may experience higher prices for chocolate and related products as manufacturers adjust to increased raw material costs.
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