Ivory Coast expects greater cocoa output next season on better weather

AFRICAN BUSINESS AND ECONOMYJuly 1, 2024 at 9:22 AM UTC

TLDR

Ivory Coast cocoa output set to rebound, expected to reach 2 million tons in the 2024-25 season.
Global supply squeeze may ease with this increase in production in the world's top cocoa producer.
Improved weather conditions contribute to the anticipated growth in Ivory Coast's cocoa harvest.

Ivory Coast's cocoa output is expected to rebound next season, potentially easing the global supply squeeze that has pushed prices to record highs. The anticipated increase in production is attributed to improved weather conditions.

As the world's top cocoa producer, the West African nation is projected to harvest 2 million tons of cocoa in the 2024-25 crop year, starting October 1, according to sources familiar with early pod counts cited by Bloomberg.

This optimistic outlook for the upcoming year compares to the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates Ivory Coast will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Historically, output has averaged 2.2 million tons over the five years preceding the 2023-24 season.

Key Takeaways

A combination of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top cocoa-growing countries Ivory Coast and Ghana contributed to this season’s slump, driving New York cocoa futures to exceed $11,000 a ton earlier this year. However, prices have since eased due to optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also anticipating a better crop next season. Additionally, Ivory Coast is intensifying efforts to curb the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries, which should help boost supplies. Sources estimate that around 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season. These measures, along with improved weather, are expected to support a rebound in cocoa production.

Ivory Coast

Cocoa Production

International Cocoa Organization

Commodities

Cocoa Prices

Chocolate