Kenya Third-Quarter Economic Growth Slows to Near Four-Year Low
TLDR
- Kenya’s economy grew by 4% in the third quarter of 2024, marking the slowest pace of expansion since early 2021
- This was a decline from 4.6% growth in the previous quarter and 6% in the same period of 2023
- The figure fell short of the central bank’s forecast of 5.2%, reflecting disruptions across multiple sectors following anti-government protests
Kenya’s economy grew by 4% in the third quarter of 2024, marking the slowest pace of expansion since early 2021. This was a decline from 4.6% growth in the previous quarter and 6% in the same period of 2023. The figure fell short of the central bank’s forecast of 5.2%, reflecting disruptions across multiple sectors following anti-government protests earlier in the year.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics attributed the slowdown to reduced activity in key industries, including construction, mining, and quarrying, which contracted sharply. Agriculture, the country’s main economic driver and accounting for nearly a quarter of total output, grew by 4.2%, slower than the 4.8% expansion in the prior quarter.
The sector faced challenges such as reduced tea production, which dampened overall performance. Meanwhile, tourism-related activities, including accommodation and food services, grew at a reduced rate of 13.7% compared to 26.6% in the previous quarter, signaling a waning post-pandemic recovery.
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Key Takeaways
The slowdown in growth coincided with widespread unrest over tax reforms introduced by President William Ruto, which disrupted business activity and raised concerns about stability. These challenges have been reflected in Kenya’s purchasing managers’ index, which averaged 47.8 in the third quarter, indicating deteriorating business conditions. While the central bank maintains a 2024 growth forecast of 5.1%, achieving this will require addressing the economic impacts of political unrest and revitalizing key industries. Without stronger recovery measures, Kenya risks further economic stagnation amid its ongoing fiscal and structural challenges.
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