Nigeria's Current Account Surplus Projected to Hit $8.69B in Q3

The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) projects Nigeria's current account surplus to expand to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026. This forecast, detailed in its September 2026 Monthly Market Report, follows a $7.54 billion surplus recorded in the second quarter of the year. The Q2 figure had already surpassed FMDA's earlier projection of $6.12 billion, indicating a stronger-than-anticipated performance.

The anticipated widening of the surplus is primarily attributed to persistently elevated crude oil prices and a reduction in import demand. Stronger oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $99.95 per barrel in September, have provided significant support for Nigeria's external position. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to this 14.43 percent rise in oil prices during the month.

Nigeria's trade balance has shown consistent improvement, rising from $1.18 billion in Q4 2025 to $5.45 billion in Q1 2026, and further to $9.22 billion in Q2. Similarly, the current account balance increased from $1.40 billion in Q4 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026 before reaching $7.54 billion in Q2. Gross foreign reserves also climbed to $54.92 billion in September from $53.81 billion in August, reflecting the strengthening external position.

This improved external position has coincided with an appreciation of the naira, which strengthened by 1.93 percent in September. FMDA attributes this primarily to enhanced foreign exchange fundamentals, including stronger inflows from oil receipts and sustained market confidence. The association noted that while the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO may have generated some investor interest, its direct impact on overall FX liquidity remains limited for now, with significant foreign currency conversion expected only after allotment.

The $8.69 billion Q3 current account surplus remains a projection, pending the release of official data. Analysts will monitor whether this strengthening trend continues, especially as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude to moderate towards $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 before declining further to $74 in 2027. This outlook comes as Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23 percent in September, alongside projected declines in financial system liquidity inflows for October.