Nigerian Economy Growth Exceeds Forecast in Third Quarter

BREAKING NEWSDecember 1, 2025 at 10:06 PM UTC

TLDR

Nigeria’s economy grew 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025, slightly above expectations and marginally higher than the 3.86% recorded a year earlier
The oil sector grew 5.84% year-on-year as average crude production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day, though output fell short of Q2 levels
The non-oil sector expanded 3.91%, supported by crop production, telecommunications, trade and finance

Nigeria’s economy grew 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025, slightly above expectations and marginally higher than the 3.86% recorded a year earlier, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The expansion compares with 4.2% in the previous quarter.

Real GDP stood at N57.03 trillion, up from N54.85 trillion a year earlier. Nominal output rose 18.12% to N113.59 trillion. Services remained the largest contributor at 53%, followed by agriculture at 31%.

The oil sector grew 5.84% year-on-year as average crude production rose to 1.64 million barrels per day, though output fell short of Q2 levels and contracted on a quarterly basis. The non-oil sector expanded 3.91%, supported by crop production, telecommunications, trade and finance.

Manufacturing slowed to 1.25% growth, while construction rose 5.57%. ICT recorded 5.78% growth and contributed 9.1% to GDP. Financial services grew 19.63%, although their share of GDP declined.

The statistics agency said the economy maintained moderate momentum despite persistent structural pressures.

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Key Takeaways

Nigeria’s outlook has improved in recent months, helped by higher oil output, stronger portfolio inflows and gradual policy adjustments. In October, the IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.9%, citing improved investor sentiment and more supportive fiscal conditions. Still, the Q3 data shows uneven progress. Manufacturing remains weighed down by high input costs and FX constraints, while quarterly contractions in oil and ICT point to ongoing volatility. Consumer-facing sectors such as trade and real estate show steady but subdued recovery. With inflation still elevated and household spending under pressure, economists say sustained reforms in the FX market, energy supply and revenue mobilisation will determine whether growth can accelerate toward the IMF’s medium-term projection of 4.2%.

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