Nigeria’s Economy Surpasses Expectations With 3.46% Growth in Q3
TLDR
- Nigeria’s economy exceeded growth expectations at 3.46% in Q3 2024, driven by robust performances in services and oil sectors.
- Oil sector expanded by 5.17% with increased production and infrastructure improvements, including Dangote oil refinery's expansion.
- Non-oil sector grew by 3.37%, led by a 5.19% increase in services; agriculture growth slowed due to recent floods impacting crop production.
Nigeria’s economy grew at an annual rate of 3.46% in the third quarter of 2024, exceeding the 2.86% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The growth, up from 3.19% in the previous quarter, was driven by strong performances in the services and oil sectors, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The oil sector grew 5.17%, aided by increased production of 1.47 million barrels per day and infrastructure improvements. The sector is poised for further expansion with the Dangote oil refinery ramping up production and new fields coming online. The 2025 budget, set to be presented by President Bola Tinubu on Nov. 27, anticipates crude output reaching 2.06 million barrels per day and an oil price of $75 per barrel.
The non-oil sector grew 3.37%, led by a 5.19% expansion in services, which accounted for more than half of total GDP. Agriculture growth slowed to 1.1%, affected by recent floods that destroyed crops sufficient to feed 8.5 million people for six months.
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Key Takeaways
Nigeria’s robust Q3 growth underscores the importance of its oil and services sectors in counterbalancing challenges in agriculture. The anticipated increases in oil production and refinery output could further bolster growth, while ongoing investment in infrastructure and security will be critical to sustaining momentum. Flood-related agricultural losses highlight the need for enhanced disaster resilience in the non-oil economy.
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