South African Manufacturing Sentiment Slips to Contractionary Zone

AFRICAN BUSINESS AND ECONOMYDecember 3, 2024 at 7:34 AM UTC

TLDR

South Africa’s manufacturing sentiment fell to 48.1 in November, reversing from October’s expansionary 52.6, according to Absa Group Ltd.’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
The contraction reflects weaker domestic demand and uncertainties in the global political landscape following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory.
While a decline was anticipated, economists had expected the PMI to stay above 50, which separates expansion from contraction.

South Africa’s manufacturing sentiment fell to 48.1 in November, reversing from October’s expansionary 52.6, according to Absa Group’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The contraction reflects weaker domestic demand and uncertainties in the global political landscape following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory.

While a decline was anticipated, economists had expected the PMI to stay above 50, which separates expansion from contraction. The downturn came despite improved local conditions, including stabilized electricity supply, lower inflation, and reduced interest rates.

The business activity sub-index dropped sharply to 49 from 55.6, and new sales orders fell to 45.9 from 54.8. However, the six-month expectations index remained steady at 62.3, signaling optimism about future conditions.

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Key Takeaways

The decline highlights the vulnerability of South Africa’s manufacturing sector to global uncertainties, even as local conditions improve. Lower inflation and interest rates have not offset weak demand, while concerns about global trade post-Trump's election weigh on sentiment. Factories remain optimistic, but immediate challenges underline fragile recovery prospects.

South Africa

Economy

Donald Trump

Absa

US Election